Eye-popping sales figures... Industry-shaping technological prowess... Mind-numbing financial strength
What a tremendous success it has been! The Apple juggernaut has trounced all pundits' expectations, steam-rolled all competition into pulp, gatecrashed into the 'PC' market with unquantifiable fury, and totally destroyed all existing business models in its industry.
It is a heart-warming story for those who have followed (the late) Steve Jobs' life and times.
It is a detestable nightmare for the likes of HP, Dell, Microsoft, RIM, Nokia and Google.
It is grand fodder for case-studies that are being churned from leading b-schools portals.
But what is it that's made this amazing success possible? Can it be replicated by Apple itself in the future, or by anyone else? How far can Apple really go? Will it end sometime?
Here is my analysis of the Big 5 lessons from Apple's decade of uncontrolled steam-rolling, left-right-and-centre!
1. Mega success is a unique template
Really big successes - where companies trample everyone else and romp home with full glory - are almost always based on unique business models. There is nothing "standardisable" about such models except the underlying features - genuinely unique disruptive models, firm belief in what the company is trying to achieve, and a loyal fan base. So Apple's model of success just cannot get replicated by someone else. Students of management will remind us of the commoditisation phenomenon, rightly. But other than that, corporate history teaches us that such "repeats" by someone else is almost impossible. Just check out the stories of Microsoft, GE, WalMart, McDonalds, Dell, and Google to get a feel. In each of these cases, no one could repeat their business models with similar success rates.
2. Mega success won't get repeated
Even if Apple wants to repeat the same success story from scratch, chances are it won't be able to. The customers would have changed by then, their tastes would have evolved, the whole set of external conditions will have become novel and different. So the same products just won't work at all. Hence the same model is ruled out. (Yes, they may try new products, but Apple is so much defined by its unique products (of today) that a new set of products will almost mean a new business model).
(if you feel that 2 is the same as 1 above, please read again)
3. New Star is always in the offing
"All empires collapse eventually". The good news is no single player will dominate any segment forever. That is nature's check against monopoly and destructive domination. It is certain that a new player is sitting somewhere is some garage chiselling a bullet with "Apple" written on it. And the bullet will be fired for sure. Those who find it difficult to digest will do well to remember the disdain with which rumours of RIM's fall or HP's inability to face Apple's iPad onslaught were received just a few years ago. In 2007, it was considered heresy to even suggest that some company could dare challenge HP's PC-laptop monopoly. In 2004, it was inconceivable that the multi-models business strategy of Nokia could ever go wrong.
So it will be with Apple. The fact that technology moves forward with great pace, and with no fidelity towards any particular shade of capital, is a sobering reminder that the bullet may appear from anywhere! Apple may not "die down"... its multi-billion dollar horde of cash stashed in banks can turn it into a safe financier of dreams for generations to come. But that won't be the Apple we know, and respect.
4. "Future predictions" are the best bullshit conceivable
The painful thing about human life is that predictions are impossible to make with certainty. In a sense, this is what makes life so interesting - what would we do if we knew our date of departure? But in business, leaders are always desperate to take a peek into the crystal ball and latch on to any shred of news/analysis that can throw light on the future with some certainty. However, one lesson we can learn from the past 20 years of corporate-watching - "Take every pundit's predictions with a bag-full of salt. Most likely, she is going to be proven totally wrong by the future." For any CEO, saying anything with certainty should be perhaps restricted to a couple of quarters, or at the most a full year. Not more!
No one - NO ONE - can predict the future. That's how the wonderfully woven strands of uncertainty define our space-time. That's why God always smiles in his heaven. Because He(She) knows for sure that the interplay of globalisation, technology and mankind's ambitions make a potent unpredictable mixture.
No one - NO ONE - can predict the future. That's how the wonderfully woven strands of uncertainty define our space-time. That's why God always smiles in his heaven. Because He(She) knows for sure that the interplay of globalisation, technology and mankind's ambitions make a potent unpredictable mixture.
5. Personality cults are still the best bet - they will remain so
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| Salaam, o sailor! |
Companies make products for human beings. Even petfood is purchased by humans, and not dogs. And humans always will remain emotional beings. So it is logical to assume that humans will always be impressed by role models who are worth emulating. Steve Jobs was definitely the most maverick role model - his Stanford speech proved it. It is a grand mistake to assume that companies and products cannot do well if personality cults are used to promote them. It is an equally grand mistake to assume that companies can forever keep using personality cults to sell with the same vigour - people are mortal, period. (either by age, or by talent)
So what's the best way? Well, a matter of choice. Apple chose Steve's cult to base its entire appeal on (they may not say so, but ask any fanboi and you will know!)
Business is so interesting ... just see it from the human lens. It's amazing!
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